Venue: Conference Hall, The Nippon Foundation Bldg., 2F, 1-2-2 Akasaka, Minato-Ku, Tokyo
 


Ambassador of India to Japan, H.E. Mr. M.L Tripathi's Remarks

at the Inauguration of the Conference on Asian Economic Integration : Vision of a New Asia
(Tokyo, 18-19 November 2004)

  Good morning and welcome to this Conference on Asian Economic Integration.
2  I wanted to be here this morning and personally share with you the importance we attach to the concept of an Asian Economic Community.  Unfortunately, that has not been possible because of a long standing commitment.
3 Given the formidable range of expertise and experience that participants in this Conference represent, I am sure your deliberations will throw up useful ideas.  I do, however, wish to share some thoughts with you on the theme of the seminar.
4 It is now being widely acknowledged that the 21st century will belong to Asia.  The reasons are obvious.
5 Asia is the largest continent in the world, both in terms of population as well as territory.
6 In 1940, Asia accounted for 60 per cent of the world’s population and 19 per cent of the world’s GDP.  By 2025, this will change to 55 per cent of the world’s population and 57 per cent of global GDP.
7 Asia today accounts for the world’s largest energy resources. The world’s fastest growing economies and markets are also within Asia.
8 According to the now well-known report by Goldman Sachs, China with a GDP of US$ 44.4 trillion, India with $ 27.8 trillion and Japan with $ 6.7 trillion will be the first, third and fourth largest economies of the world by the year 2050.  Thus, by the middle of this century, 3 of the 4 top world economies will be in Asia.
9 By the year 2010, 60% of the world’s population in the 20-35 age-group is likely to be Asian, contributing a vast pool of producers of goods and services and driving global demand.
10 Asia will thus become the fulcrum of economic activity and will also contribute substantially to global security in the 21st century.
11 Guided by this vision, India has been working vigorously to strengthen its relations with its Asian partners – with China, Japan, countries in the ASEAN region, West Asian countries and Central Asian neighbours.
12 We have a similar vision of South Asia, unshackled from historical divisions and bound together in collective pursuit of peace and prosperity.
13 Since the launching of its Look-East Policy in the early 1990s, India has been seeking extensive economic cooperation and strategic contacts with countries in South East Asia bilaterally as well as in ASEAN, ARF and other regional framework.
14  The end of the Cold War, liberalization of the Indian economy and the growing recognition of India as a key factor of stability and economic dynamism in Asia have contributed to enhanced engagement between India and the ASEAN region.
15 India-ASEAN dialogue has been elevated to summit level since 2002 and India has acceded to the Friendship and Amity Treaty.
16 An India-ASEAN framework FTA was signed at the Bali summit last year.  Our bilateral FTA with Thailand and Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement with Singapore will further facilitate India’s engagement with this region.
17 Our relations with China are following a positive course.
18 Bilateral economic cooperation has shown remarkable growth and diversification in recent years.  Our bilateral trade has registered a steep increase from US$ 265 million in 1991 to US$ 7.6 billion in 2003 and is projected to top the US$ 12 billion mark in 2004-05.
19 The civilizational and cultural ties between the two countries provide the foundation to build a strong relationship.  The new Government under Dr. Manmohan Singh’s leadership has reaffirmed India’s commitment to strengthen relations with China while carrying forward on-going dialogue to resolve outstanding differences.
20 Japan-India relations have a long history and our friendship goes back to the 6th century AD when the Buddha’s message of peace and compassion arrived here.
21  In a more recent context, the visit of Prime Minister Mori to India in August 2000 marked a paradigm change in our relations.  With our decision to forge a Global Partnership in the 21st century, Japan-India relations are entering a qualitatively new phase and acquiring fresh momentum.
22 China has entered into a framework FTA with ASEAN.  Japan is seeking similar arrangements.  There is talk about other bilateral and regional FTAs involving South Korea, Japan, China, Australia and South East Asian countries.
23 At the second ASEAN-India summit in Bali last year, India had mooted the idea of an Asian Economic Community.
24 Our vision in this regard was succinctly articulated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the following words in his address to the Third ASEAN Business Summit last month and I quote:

 

“It is only inevitable that we seek to take the existing India-ASEAN relationship to a higher level, where we envision an Asian Economic Community, which encompasses ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea and India.  Such a community would release enormous creative energies of our people.

One cannot but be captivated by the vision of an integrated market, spanning the distance from the Himalayas to the Pacific Ocean, linked by efficient road, rail, air and shipping services.

This community of nations would constitute an “arc of advantage”, across which there would be large-scale movement of people, capital, ideas and creativity. Such a community would be roughly the size of the European Union in terms of income and bigger than NAFTA in terms of trade.

It would account for half the world’s population and it would hold foreign exchange reserves exceeding those of the EU and NAFTA put together.

This is an idea whose time is fast approaching, and we must be prepared for it collectively.”  End of quote.

 

25  Former Prime Minister of Singapore, Mr. Goh Chok Tong had expressed similar views during his visit to India in July this year when he had said and I quote:

“In time, the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement between Singapore and India can eventually lead to an Asian Economic Community, linking South Asia, South East Asia and North East Asia.

Such a Community will result in a strong and prosperous Asia with India as one of the key pillars.

The stars are falling into alignment and we have the chance to turn this into Asia’s century.

We must not miss it.”  End of quote.

 

26  Speaking at the Asian Relations Conference hosted by India way back in March 1947, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had said and I quote: “We live in an age of tremendous transition and already the next stage takes shape when Asia assumes her rightful place with other continents”.  End of quote.
27 Asia is on the threshold of realizing that vision.
28 The key to enhancing Asian security lies in our collective ability to build mutual economic stakes in each other. The logic of economics will eventually overwhelm Asia just as it has happened in Europe.  It holds the potential to knit Asia together in a manner never seen before.
29 An atmosphere of peace and stability, sustained trust and cooperation and mutual acknowledgement of the complementary roles of leading Asian nations  like China, Japan, India and others in this regard will be essential to ensure that Asia fulfills its destiny.
30 There has been a mis-perception among some observers that the scope for India’s economic integration with East Asia is limited.  This judgment misses out some obvious facts that makes India’s active involvement in the evolution of an integrated economic network in Asia indispensable.
31 Let me elaborate.
32 Our vibrant democracy is our biggest asset.  It has provided the resilient base for steady economic growth with stability.
33 Our achievements in the economic field are noteworthy and are a source of optimism and encouragement.
34 There was a time when we were told that India will not be able to feed its growing population. Today, we export food-grains and maintain national buffer-stocks of over 20 million tonnes.
35 In the 1990’s, after the initiation of economic reforms by the Narasimha Rao Government, India recorded an average growth of around 6% per annum.  We hope to sustain an annual growth of 7% or more in the coming decade. In fact, our economy grew by over 8% last year.
36 According to the Goldman Sachs report quoted earlier, ours will be the third largest economy by 2030 after China and the US and will be worth over US$ 27 trillion by 2050.  Several other internationally reputed experts and institutions have made similar predictions about the India’s future growth.
37 550 million Indians out of our billion-plus strong population are below the age of 25.  We have the second largest reservoir of trained manpower which is being constantly augmented by the products of our 290 universities, 1500 research institutions and over 10,000 centers of higher education.
38 These institutions produce over 2 million under-graduates, 300,000 non-engineering post-graduates, over 200,000 engineers and some 9,000 PhDs every year.
39 Our demographic trends and our human resource base thus constitute one of our strongest assets.  As East Asia enters a phase of demographic burden, India will enter a phase of demographic gift, with a higher share of working-age population.  India can thus help address East Asia’s emerging demographic challenges.
40 The 20 million plus strong Indian diaspora, spread across Asia and the rest of the world, is making a significant contribution to socio-economic development in countries of their adoption.  Indian managers, technicians, professionals and semi-skilled workers are internationally competitive and, for Asia, culturally compatible.
41  In addition to the sharp growth in merchandise trade in recent times, India has made significant inroads in the area of international trade in service transactions.  IT is a case in point.
42 Two-way investment flows between India and the rest of Asia are on the rise.
43 India is playing an increasing role in two-way flow of educational services.  Our world-class technical and management institutions are being recognized in the rest of Asia for their excellence.
44 These are among the very obvious reasons why India has to and will play an  important role in the resurgence of Asia in this century and in charting a course for Asian Economic Integration.
45 The successful evolution of an Asian Economic Community would indeed be difficult to visualize without India’s full participation.
46 India accordingly looks forward to playing its due role in this epic journey on which Asia is embarked.
47  I thank you for your attention.

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12 minutes